Eastern in the GOP-leaning Panhandle, so there's time for more Republican votes, too Polls close in an hour and 15 minutes in most of Florida, and Democrats tend to vote a little later in the day, so they could eat a bit back into Republican margins. Biden probably needs to win independents by 7 points if the composition of the electorate continues to look like this. Nearly every poll says Biden leads with them, but the question is how much. Now, 24% of the electorate are no independent party affiliation/third party voters, so it's anyone's guess how they break. Not every Democrat is voting for Biden nor ever Republican for Trump, so we're using these raw ballot numbers as a sign of intensity. Biden wants to keep that margin at 2 or below. Republicans then stormed the polls today and led Democrats by about 184,000 ballots cast, or 1.7 points. They began the day in a hole to Democrats in total ballots cast, with the Dems ahead by 115,000 early and absentee ballots cast, a margin of 1.3 percentage points. update, Republicans have been dominating the day in turnout, as expected. We're watching turnout and we can do it almost in real-time. I'm watching three things: Florida, Florida, Florida. To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7-point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.8. We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. It was R+0.6 in 2016 when Trump won by 1.2 points. As of about 6:30, the GOP’s share of vote was 1.8 percentage points higher than the Democrats, known as an R+1.8 electorate. More Republicans are voting than Democrats in Florida. When more Republicans vote than Democrats, the Republican has won. Bottom line: when more Democrats vote than Republicans, the Democrat has won Florida. He would be the 1st top-of-the-ticket candidate to carry the state even though his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent’s party. If Biden wins FL tonight, it will be unique. This is a problem both for presidential elections and for hopes of regaining control in the Senate.Polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone of FL, they'll be open for another hour in Central. But the Electoral College favours small states at the expense of big ones, which means they are facing an increasingly difficult structural challenge. This would not be a problem for them if the presidency were decided by poplar vote. This is part of a long-term trend where the Democrats are more and more concentrated geographically. This means Biden will have won the the presidency with the fewest counties (Obama won 689 in 2012), but also the largest number of votes in history. Overall, at the time of writing Biden has won 477 counties, Trump has won 2,497 counties with 110 still outstanding. Biden won the majority of the people, Trump won the majority of the land.Īccording to NPR: “In 2020, just 77 counties total have flipped so far, and Biden won 59 of them.”Īnd according to the Brookings Institute: “Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America’s economy.” However, in terms of geography the pattern from 2016 largely remained the same. This means Biden won 306 electoral college votes compared to 232 for Trump an almost complete switch from 2016 where he won 304 electoral college votes to 227 for Clinton (there were 7 faithless electors in 2016). The difference of course is primarily down to the enormous increase in voter turnout 66.9% in 2020 vs just 55.7% in 2016. However, Trump also did better in 2020 than 2016 winning 11 million more votes than he did 4 years earlier, and 8 million more than Clinton did that year.
Moreover, as of December 2nd, 2020 Biden had received 15 million more votes than Clinton and 18 million more votes than Trump did in 2016. First and foremost Biden won whereas Clinton lost.
While overall the map doesn’t look too dissimilar from 2016, the results in many ways couldn’t be more different. You can see how it compares to the 2016 map here. The darker the blue the more a county went for Joe Biden and the darker the red the more the county went for Donald Trump. The map above shows the county level and vote share results of the 2020 US Presidential Election. Map created by Magog the Ogre via Wikimedia
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